The UK has been greeted on its return to work today with the news that mortgage approvals rose 4% in the month from January to February this year.  Good news most will say.  However, the question that remains is is the UK market beginning its recovery, or is this simply a blip in an otherwise continuing downward spiral?

A number of property indicators in 2009 have suggested some form of recovery is under way.  From my own network of contacts in the property industry, January and February were certainly upbeat months.  So who is buying?  It seems it is a combination of first time buyers and property investors keen to take advantage of what they see as value in the market. There is certainly an increased level of demand from first time buyers who, having previously not been able to get on the ladder and have saved in the meantime, and now in position to take advantage of lower prices.

Many property investors, who will abide by the “buy low, sell high” philosophy, see an opportunity to buy up stock previously out of their reach.  Due to the increased numbers of repossessions, the Below Market Value (BMV) industry has certainly exploded in the last 3 months, with investors looking to buy at anywhere between 20% and 30% below market value on second hand property, and as much as 60% below market value for unsold developer stock.  These factors, combined with a stabilising in mortgage rates and products has led to increased enquiries, sales, and therefore the improvement in nationwide data released by various bodies.

In addition to this, lower interest rates have meant homeowners, specifically on tracker mortgages, have in some cases more than halved their monthly outgoings.  The government can therefore argue that lowering rates has put more money back in some people’s pockets.  However, it has been well documented that rate cuts have not, in the main, been passed on, so the financial easing has not affected the whole homeowner market.

So where are we?  Well general economic data would suggest the bottom has not quite arrived.  Job cuts are still being made and mainstream lending does not appear to have improved much.  Coupled with the facts that repossessions are still rising and general transactions between homeowners are still low would suggest that there is a blip in the market.  However, supply and demand are still fundamental when looking at the property market.  As prices fall, demand generally increases, and there is no doubt that demand has increased in 2009.  One could take a further view that if property prices continue to fall, the demand will continue to increase from both increased levels of first time buyers and investors looking for even better deals.  Therefore, it is my opinion that the property market will find a natural recovery point in the not too distant future.

My morning started with Take That on the radio telling me this could be the greatest day of our lives, and then a report from the British Bankers Association informing me that the mortgage lending rose in December, indicating the start of a possible recovery for our shattered economy. Coincidence?

With nine out of ten news stories indicating the end of the financial world, it is refreshing and relieving to finally hear some positive news on this cloudy Monday morning.

Figures indicated that approvals for house purchases in December were around 22,000, up from around 17,300 in November. This figure is still 46% down on this time last year, but to see an extra 5,000 mortgages approved in what is traditionally one of the weakest months for selling houses, is excellent news and a sure sign that investors and home buyers are now starting to understand it is a great time to buy, with some amazing bargains on the market.

2008 was undoubtedly a lot harder for mortgage lenders and estate agents than the previous few years, with borrowing at a much lower rate, and the BBA backed this up.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data:

“This first opportunity to compare 2008 with 2007 shows that gross mortgage lending by the main high street banks totalled £170bn, some 23% below 2007’s total of £221bn. However, lending by the rest of the mortgage market was half the previous year’s total, showing how mortgage lending became much more concentrated during the year. The banks approved less than half the 2007 number of loans for house purchase, reflecting falling demand from households facing greater economic uncertainty and double-digit falls in house prices over the year which led to a wait-and-see mentality.

“Consumer credit was very weak in December as people reined in their credit card spending, despite early Sales and heavy discounting by retailers. This consumer caution was also reflected in personal deposits, which rose strongly.”

There are obvious problems at the moment but we are starting to see a rise in house sales, more mortgage companies offering more products and a general raise in enquiries reported by many estate agents. The question that will be asked is will this continue for the next few months or even the year, or will this rise only last a couple of months before things take another turn for the worse.

We will not know until it happens and I am sure there are more ups and downs ahead, but we must take notice of the fact that more people are now buying homes than in November, which in turn will not only help the economy but also give some relief to the many companies related to property.

With Discover and Invest launching our first Property Investment deals next week, this news is more welcome than a cold beer on a summers evening.

Today I’m going to take a look at what type of property will be a good play in 2009, with 2 main contenders: existing,completed properties or the recent investor’s darling, the off-plan..

Firstly, as a pre-text, it does depend on strategy.  If you are looking for a holiday home to use in the next few months, you will probably not be considering off-plan…so for the purposes of this piece we will assume it is for investment in 2009.

A comparison – existing, income generating properties are in many ways a lower risk play than off-plan and generally perform better in a downturn.  What is important with existing properties is that you have real-time evidence to base your decisions on: current comparable property prices, rents levels, availability of tenants, mortgage rates and terms, currency (if buying abroad), political situation, etc.  As your property is active as of now, compared to off-plan which is active in the future, you have the benefit of what judging information on what is happening now to manage your risk more appropriately..

With off-plan, it is a more speculative, higher risk type of purchase.  Off-plan is a solid enough investment in a booming market, where increases in equity are sought over rental yield.  You are however taking a leap of faith with off-plan and need to ask that many more questions.  Depending on location, such as an emerging market, there may be nothing built with no idea of valuation other than the developer’s price as a guide.  In the time between “purchasing” and “completing”, a whole set of factors will change, either in your favour or against you.   These factors include, property values, rental yields, mortgage rates and terms, final construction quality, infrastructure changes and exchange rates.  So off-plan is a higher risk play; some projects will be of great success but many others won’t.

With regard to the off-plan boom in the current climate, there is a caveat, and this applies to off-plan units that are soon to complete, or have just completed.  A number of locations round the world have suffered from over-supply of units from developers.  In several countries I have been to, many developers are renting recently completed, previously unsold, off-plan units out to generate some income.  These units are available for a snip of the advertised price when they were off-plan so, depending on your strategy and where you would like to buy, there are no doubt some excellent recently completed, or soon to be completed, “off-plan” deals.

Therefore in today’s market, for investment it is generally a better bet to go for completed existing properties, or soon to complete, “previously off-plan” properties, where the evidence to make your investment decision is real-time rather than 2 years away.

I am A Buy To Let Investor.

I know, I am sorry, I have contributed to the current crisis, made sure that many young people can no longer afford to live anywhere and also made money from banks and run down areas.

For this I can only apologise.

But, I may only have two houses in my small portfolio of UK property, but in today’s current investment orientated world, I would be labelled a Buy to Let Investor. This term should traditionally imply someone with 20 houses all over the UK and possibly the world, with a combined worth of many millions.

Isn’t that what an investor is?

Well, these days no. Whether you put some money into a small portfolio of houses or you take chances on the stocks and shares, you will be classed as an investor.

According to Wikipedia, an investor is:

“An investor is any party that makes an investment.

The term has taken on a specific meaning in finance to describe the particular types of people and companies that regularly purchase equity or debt securities for financial gain in exchange for funding an expanding company. Less frequently, the term is applied to parties who purchase real estate, currency, commodity derivatives, personal property, or other assets.”

The question has to be, where do you stop becoming someone who has saved a little bit of money in an ISA, which is an investment of sorts, to becoming an investor? I do not think I am an investor, more someone who has a couple of houses in the North, looking to make a long term capital gain on their worth, which in one sense is an investment, but on the other is just a more secure bet of putting surplus money into something that even with the doom and gloom in the media, will make some money, especially if you are taking a 5 or 10 year plan.

Investor is a word that gets applied to anybody these days, and if you were to ask most people labelled by this term, I would guess many, if not the majority, would probably not consider themselves to be an investor. The years of having to work in London, wear a suit and carry a funky leather briefcase and laptop to be classed as an investor are long gone, and now all you need is a laptop, cup of coffee and a UK Bank Account.

So what types of Investors are there?

Well, according to Wikipedia:

* Individual investors (including trusts on behalf of individuals, and umbrella companies formed for two or more to pool investment funds)
* Collectors of art, antiques, and other things of value
* Angel investors, either individually or in groups
* Venture capital funds, which serve as investment collectives on behalf of individuals, companies, pension plans, insurance reserves, or other funds.
* Investment banks
* Businesses that make investments, either directly or via a captive fund
* Investment trusts, including real estate investment trusts
* Mutual funds, hedge funds, and other funds, ownership of which may or may not be publicly traded (these funds typically pool money raised from their owner-subscribers to invest in securities)
* Sovereign wealth funds

The question I would raise is even if you own your own house, you are an investor. You are investing in the house being worth more than you paid for it and if you are on a repayment mortgage, you are looking to slowly chip away at your repayments to eventually own something that has to be considered an investment.

The walls and barriers have come down. Buy a couple of houses, you are an investor, buy some of the Discover And Invest Stamps, you are an investor, put some money into the Discover And Invest ambulance trading, you are an investor.

These days, we are all investors, for different reasons, purposes and methods yes, but deep down, everyone is an investor.

OK so the property markets are down, we all know that. However the reversal in supply/demand will never reach the point where nothing will be bought or sold at all. There are still people out there looking to buy property and accordingly sell, and there are also people looking at new development opportunities without really knowing what precautions they should take. This was brought further to my attention during the Christmas break and a conversation with a friend of my uncles due to retire this year. He himself is looking to purchase both in France and the UK and his choice of options here in blighty included off-plan new builds. His request for advice did not go ignored!

Over the last year or so I have heard some horror stories emanating from UK off-plans and have even met a few to have fallen victim to this. However on the flip side I can also bear testimony to a success story of someone who purchased on behalf of his university bound daughter. There are certainly no blueprints for dealing with developers but it’s fair to say that the more due diligence you can do the better. Many potential purchasers of property often feel they don’t know the right questions to ask to make that informed decision.  A useful analogy is taking your car in for an MOT.   Most of us don’t have the knowledge and therefore always feel anxious about stated problems and solutions.  It is always advantageous to be informed!

There are some respected businesses out there that have impressive track records & strong testimonials; but how do you differentiate them from those less scrupulous who will willingly over value and mislead? Well the following forms the basis of a first stage due diligence that I would look to do on anything under consideration. There is of course so much more that would need to be done should one wish to progress to potential purchase, but this for me serves as a way to gain confidence with a developer, or of course the complete opposite.

First and foremost I would find out about exactly who they are. Running checks on the directors individually as well as the company itself, not just on Google but also investment forums such as Singing Pig & Blagger for example, are vital. Also query every single claim in their pitch & promotional literature. If they are slow in responding at this early stage, I would consider discontinuing with them.

Furthermore with the company itself, I’d ask how long they have been in business for and how many completed projects they have under their belt, particularly recently. I’d also dig a bit more about the company’s financials in terms of turnover and current liquidity as if these are healthy then they will have no problem with providing it. If this is side-stepped or refused then I would quite frankly consider utilising the nearest exit point with no plans to return!

It’s also worth looking into the area itself and conducting some basic research on what other projects are also planned for the area, whether or not any projects are under construction and also if any have been recently completed; and if so, draw comparables between size & prices. Property web portals are a good starting point for this as they will have a selection of new builds for each given region which will go a long way to providing an idea of the state of play.

As previously mentioned there are so many more factors to delve into such as additional costs, local infrastructure, house price comparables etc, but that comes next. The above is the advice I gave and it was gratefully received. Of course this is the opinion of one person so I would welcome any comments from those reading this. What would you do or more importantly, what do you do? What have you done? How successful have you been?