The UK economy contracted -1.9% in the first quarter of 2009, more than economists expected with record declines in the manufacturing and service sectors. This news has sent the pound plunging against the dollar and euro as investors also remain wary of record levels of government borrowing.

Pound Sterling - UK Markets

Sterling is sliding this morning against its major currency partners with the release of first quarter GDP figures showing the UK economy contracted significantly in early 2009. This morning the pound has slid over 1% on the euro, yen and New Zealand dollar, and 0.4% against the US dollar.

ONS statistics show the UK economy contracted -1.9% in the first quarter of 2009. This follows a -1.6% contraction in the previous quarter and was substantially higher than the -1.5% predicted by most economists. This takes the annual growth rate to -4.1%, a contraction significantly larger than the 3% predicted by Alistair Darling earlier in the week. Retail sales figures, a key indicator of consumer spending, rose 0.3% in March. Sterling is likely to continue its bearish run today as these figures, along with the 12.4% budget deficit, play on the minds of investors. Credit agency Moody’s has also expressed concern over the levels of government borrowing, which is set to reach GBP175 billion this year, prompting concerns the UK may lose its AAA credit rating. There is no further data in the UK today.

US Dollar - US Markets

The dollar is weaker across the board this morning, down 0.9% against the euro and yen, gaining only on the pound in terms of the major currencies.

The growing perception of ‘green shoots’ emerging in the US economy this week has supported a series of rallies in markets, boosting some of the higher yielding currencies at the expense of the dollar. Solid corporate earnings from Bank of America and Citigroup and increased funding from G20 nations have contributed to the view that the worst of recession may be easing. These rallies however, remain capped by bouts of negative data, with news that home sales fell 3% in March renewing concerns over the property market. The Federal Reserve’s methodology for stress testing banks is released today with results of the tests due on May 4. Market opinion currently is that the purging of toxic assets is far from over and the extent of credit write downs could damage positive sentiment in weeks to come. Durable goods orders and new home sales are out today.

Euro – European Markets

The euro has gained across the board this morning, strengthening to test 1.32 against the US dollar and gaining over 1.3% on the pound. The single currency has dipped slightly against the yen, Swedish kronor and Swiss franc.

The euro has benefitted from a glut of negative data released in the UK this week and rallies in equities supporting slightly higher risk appetite. Economic data yesterday showing the pace of recession in the Eurozone easing also boosted confidence and the euro has moved to consolidate on this support. This morning, figures show the German IFO business climate and expectations rose to 83.7 and 83.9 respectively, which bode well for the rest of the region. There is no further data from the Eurozone today.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The Australian and Kiwi dollars have capped off a week of declines against the yen on concerns that recession will reduce demand for the export products of the two nations. Next week markets are likely to focus on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision where a 0.5% reduction is expected, and the National Bank of Australia’s business confidence survey.

The euro has risen against the US dollar this morning with economic news from the eurozone showing the pace of recession easing in the last month. Yesterday market focus was on the pound with the UK budget and 6.7% unemployment rate causing a dip in sterling exchange rates. However this morning sterling has recovered, finding support above 1.45 on the dollar and 1.11 on the euro.

Pound Sterling - UK Markets

The pound dipped to 0.90 versus the euro yesterday after the announcement of “eye watering” government debt in the UK rattled markets. Sterling lost ground the euro and dollar throughout the day but appears to have been given the benefit of the doubt this morning, maintaining support above 1.45 and 1.11 on the dollar and euro respectively.

The UK budget announced yesterday has been subject to in-depth economic analysis and will continue to do so over the coming days. Among the headline grabbers was Darling’s top tax rate of 50% and predicted growth contraction of 3-3.5% for 2009. Higher tax levels raised the issue of competitiveness internationally and prompted speculation that top investors would keep their money elsewhere. The government also confirmed the view that a weak pound in the short term will give export markets a much needed boost. The budget deficit, predicted to reach 12% of GDP, put gilt prices under pressure and sent Sterling exchange rates lower. Unemployment, the housing market, auto sales and the ‘greening’ of new industry also took precedence in the new budget. Bank of England minutes released yesterday showed the MPC unanimously voted to maintain current interest rates and quantitative easing levels. To cap off a big week in the UK, GDP figures and retail sales are due tomorrow.

US Dollar - US Markets

The dollar has weakened this morning, down over 0.5% against the pound, Australian and Kiwi dollars as positive news from the Eurozone has revitalised investor confidence. The dollar is currently in the vicinity of 0.68 against the pound, 0.76 against the euro and 98 against the yen.

Renewed concern over the banking sector caused a drop in equities late in the day yesterday as markets continue to oscillate between positive and negative territory depending on the latest set of data released. News that Morgan Stanley operated less profitably than expected, combined with the IMF report that contradicted UK growth predictions caused a plunge in risk appetite but markets have rallied this morning on the back of positive news from the eurozone. Initial and existing jobless claims, as well as new home sales for March are due in the US today.

Euro – European Markets

The euro has rallied this morning, boosted by a flight from sterling following the announcement of the UK budget and on the back of economic data showing recession easing in the eurozone. The euro is currently trading at 1.30 against the dollar and is up to 0.89 against the pound.

The German purchasing manager index out this morning has shown decline at the slowest rate in 5 months in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Industrial new orders for the eurozone also dropped less than expected and the EMU current account came in a EUR-8.1 billion. In addition to the news that Credit Suisse operated profitably for the first quarter of 2009 and French economic sentiment rose for the second consecutive month, this has supported the euro and moderated market opinion that the eurozone is becoming more entrenched in recession. The Swiss ZEW survey is due later in the day with Germany’s IFO business climate and expectations survey due tomorrow.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The Australian dollar continue to tread familiar ranges against the dollar and euro but spiked against the pound overnight as sterling was battered by low growth predictions and high budget deficits from the UK budget. Core inflation in Australia remained relatively high and economists predict the central bank is nearing the end of its interest rate reductions. Poor results for Morgan Stanley sent the New Zealand dollar lower as risk appetite diminished and comments from New Zealand finance minister Bill English, that New Zealand may be in its sixth quarter of recession also hurt the Kiwi currency. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading in the vicinity of 2.04 and 2.59 respectively.

Foreign exchange markets will focus on sterling today with the annual budget released in the UK. Equity markets rallied overnight on the back of comments from US Treasury Secretary Geithner. This fuelled a bounce in currency exchange rates that failed to include the euro and illustrated the pressure weighing on the euro at present.

Pound Sterling - UK Markets

The pound has weakened this morning against most of its international currency partners in the run up to the budget released today. The pound is trading in the vicinity of 1.45 against the US dollar and is down 0.5% against the euro with further exchange rate volatility likely throughout the day.

This morning’s budget is expected to be the most negative in a generation predicting a 3-3.5% growth contraction for 2009 and a deficit climbing to 12% of GDP. The government is also expected to announce plans for spending cuts and rising tax from 2011 along with moves to revitalise the property market and create thousands of new jobs in the UK. Minutes from the last Bank of England meeting also released this morning are likely to have little affect on markets as it remains too early to asses the effects of quantitative easing. The ILO unemployment rate has risen to 6.7% in the three months to February and public sector borrowing has increased to GBP19.1 billion, significantly ahead of market expectations. Also this morning, HM Revenue and Customs has announced a 40% jump in home sales for March. The budget is released at 12:30.

US Dollar - US Markets

The dollar has gained against the pound and euro this morning as uncertainty over the UK budget and fallout from the IMF report are weighing on the major currencies. The dollar is trading in the region of 0.68 versus the Pound and 0.77 versus the euro and has gained on the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand currencies.

A speech from Treasury Secretary Geithner’s yesterday led markets to a brief rally as he reassured investors of bank balance sheets. Equity markets and currency exchange rates are largely determined by the prevailing mood regarding the banking sector at present as this determines international appetite for risk. The USD-GBP exchange rate will likely be affected by the UK budget released today and we could see a weakening of the pound against the dollar. US mortgage applications and the housing price index for February are released later in the day.

Euro – European Markets

The euro continues its bearish run of the currency markets this morning, trapped below 1.3 against the US dollar and 0.89 against the pound. The euro has also declined against its Asian currency partners as details of an IMF report predict a long and entrenched recession for emerging European nations.

Positive news yesterday came in the form of the German ZEW economic survey which showed a surprise rise in confidence from -3.5 to 13. However, the fact that the euro failed to fully capitalise on this speaks volumes about market perception surrounding the Eurozone at present. Continued uncertainty from the ECB and details of the IMF financial stability report are weighing on the euro. The IMF forecast yesterday that European banks could face more substantial write downs and require greater capitalization than US banks. The IMF also expects a net investment loss to Eastern Europe with little hope of recovery in 2010 and 2011. There is little of note in the Eurozone today with the EMU current account, purchasing manager index and industrial new orders released tomorrow.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The yen advanced overnight as Japanese trade balance figures show the slump is slowing down. March export figures snapped a four month spell of record losses and this, in combination with worries over what further stress tests could expose in the US, caused the yen to advance on a basket of international currencies.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25% yesterday and plans to leave it there until inflation returns to its 2% target. The Canadian economy is expected to shrink 3% this year and the central bank is expected to announce a framework for quantitative easing on Thursday. This is weighing on the Canadian dollar at present. Leading indicators are published today.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the UK’s deficit is about 2.7% more than Chancellor Alistair Darling acknowledged in the pre-Budget report. The government may have to find £39bn a year by the end of 2015/16, to plug the gap in its finances, the IFS predicted.

Mr Darling, who will present his Budget on 22 April, has said the recession will be more severe than forecast. In making its calculations, the IFS assumed that the government would ultimately have to cover bank losses of £130bn, which have so far not been included in the government’s calculations.

Pound Sterling - UK Markets

UK car sales fell by 30.5% in March, compared with the same month last year, the latest industry figures have shown. The number of new UK registrations in March was 313,912, down from 451,642 the year before, said the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. SMMT chief executive Paul Everitt says the government needs to do more to boost confidence.

The pound has hit a two-month high against the US dollar in morning trading as investors reacted to further gains made by UK equities. A rise of over half a cent has taken the pound to interbank levels not seen since February – between 1.4601 and 1.4987.

US Dollar - US Markets

According to figures from the Department of Labor, the number of people employed in the US fell by 663,000 in March. The jobless rate rose to 8.5% from February’s figure of 8.1%, meaning it is still at its highest since 1983. It means that since the recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, 3.3 million of them in the past five months.

Euro – European Markets

Data from European Union statistics agency Eurostat has shown that eurozone industrial producer prices posted their biggest drop in annual terms for almost 10 years in February.

The report will heap pressure on the European Central Bank to lower interest rates further in the months ahead, with factory gate prices dropping 0.5% on the month, leaving them 1.8% weaker than in February last year. The drop is the seventh consecutive monthly decline in prices.

The Bank of Spain has predicted that the country’s rate of unemployment will reach 17.1% in 2009 and 19.4% in 2010. Spain currently has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union, with a rate of 15.5% in February, nearly double the EU average.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The Czech koruna has risen to a 2-week high against the US dollar after a report showed that the Czech trade surplus increased more than expected in February.

A report by the Czech Statistical Office said the trade surplus stood at CZK8.69 billion in February, up from CZK3.46 billion in the previous month. Economists expected the surplus to increase to CZK5 billion. A year ago, in February, the surplus was CZK13.03 billion. In February, exports dropped 22.2% year-on-year to CZK169.4 billion, while imports fell 21.5% to CZK160.7 billion. At the time of writing, interbank levels for the koruna-dollar pair are around 19.495 and 19.535.

Retail sales growth in the UK almost stalled in February as consumers cut back on spending, figures from the Office of National Statistics show. Sales growth slowed to 0.4% last month, the smallest increase since 1995, after a 3.6% rise in January. Analysts had expected retail sales growth to slow to 2.5%.

Pound Sterling - UK Markets

The UK Treasury has failed to sell all its government bonds in an auction for the first time since 2002. The Debt Management Office has said that the Treasury wanted to sell £1.75bn of 40-year bonds, but investors only bid for £1.63bn of the debt. Analysts said this may reflect concern over the state of the public finances as government borrowing surges.

Meanwhile, the UK February Retail Sales Report has seen the Pound decline against the US Dollar.

US Dollar - US Markets

In a quiet day for US data, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has defended the Dollar as the world reserve currency, a day after China called for it to be replaced. Pointing to the ongoing global financial crisis, China’s Central Bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan called for a new reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund.

Euro – European Markets

Following yesterday’s report that showed dire figures about German business confidence, German consumer confidence has declined for the first time in seven months. Workers are increasingly worried about keeping their jobs amid the worst recession since World War II, GfK AG’s confidence index for April shown.

According to the Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics, the Dutch economy shrank 0.6% on the year in the fourth quarter. In line with estimates, the Dutch economy in the fourth quarter contracted 1% from the previous quarter, according to the second estimate, which is a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared with the first estimate.

Spanish new housing starts fell 42% last year as a decade-long housing boom went bust, data from the country’s Housing Ministry has shown. Housing starts fell to 360,044 last year, from 615,976 in 2007. The resulting decline in housing investment pushed the wider Spanish economy into recession at the end of last year.

A report from Statistics Denmark has said the Danish seasonally adjusted jobless rate climbed to 2.5% last month from 2.3% in January. The figure, which is in line with forecasts, shows that Denmark’s unemployment rate rose in February for the fifth straight month. Denmark’s jobless rate has climbed steadily since September, when it was 1.7%.

Italian business confidence continued to fall in March, staying at its lowest level since records began in 1991, with recent bankruptcies painting a bleak outlook for the economy and exports, research centre ISAE has said.

ISAE said March business confidence in the Eurozone’s third-largest economy fell to 59.8 from 63.2 in February, well below expectations. A survey of 12 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires forecast Italian business confidence at 62.7. In the report Thursday, ISAE said sentiment in the consumer goods sector fell to 72.1 from 76.8, while investment goods sentiment slid to 56.5 from 58.7.

Following these somewhat bleak reports, the Euro weakened against its major counterparts, before bouncing back slightly against the Swiss Franc.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The Shekel-US Dollar exchange rate rose 1% in morning inter-bank trading and the Shekel-Euro exchange rate rose 1.68% after the Bank of Israel announced yesterday evening that it would continue to buy US Dollars.

Scottish MPs will question senior executives from Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group – two of the banks given multi-billion pound bailouts by the government.

The Scottish Affairs Committee will hear from Gordon Pell from RBS and Archie Kane from Lloyds, and Alasdair Darling will be questioned further about the massive pension paid to former RBS chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin. Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy has accused Sir Fred of ”banking vandalism” and called his £16m pension fund “extraordinarily distasteful”.

Pound Sterling - UK Markets

A report released by the Office for National Statistics says that the UK public sector borrowed more than expected as central government tax revenue fell sharply on the year and spending continued to rise.

The UK public sector borrowed £9bn in February, a steep increase from £1.1bn a year earlier. Expectations for net borrowing were around £7.7bn and the reported level is the highest February borrowing figure since records began in 1993.

A report from the Council of Mortgage Lenders says that the slump in mortgage lending continued in February with gross lending down by 60% on February 2008. Lending, at £9.9bn, was 15% lower than in January, and was the lowest figure for any month since February 2001. The CML said its members’ ability to lend was drying up because too many savers were choosing to put their money in National Savings policies. Mortgage rationing has led to house sales falling by more than half.

US Dollar - US Markets

The Federal Reserve has said it will buy almost $1.2trn worth of debt to help boost lending and promote economic recovery. The Fed said it would start buying long-term government debt and expand purchases of mortgage-related debt.

The size of the move has stunned investors, and caused the Dow Jones stock index to jump almost 200 points. It is hoped that the measures will boost mortgage lending and the struggling housing market by lowering interest rates on mortgages and other forms of consumer debt.

The news caused a mammoth drop for the US Dollar. The greenback experienced its third biggest one-day decline yesterday since daily pricing began back in 1970, bringing a swift end to the rally that had pushed the Dollar to the highest levels since 2006. The greenback ended the day down against both the Euro and the Pound, and reached a three-week low against the Canadian Dollar.

Euro – European Markets

According to the Dutch National Bureau for Statistics, Dutch consumers are more pessimistic in March compared to a month earlier. The Dutch consumer confidence index stood at -34 in March, falling from February’s reading of -30. The bureau added that consumers have never been so pessimistic about the economy.

The bureau also released a report showing that the Dutch unemployment rate was 4.1% in the three months to February 2009, up from 3.9% in the previous three-month period, marking the third such period in a row in which unemployment has increased.

Other Currencies - Highlights

Excluding the Yen, all of the ten most-active Asian currencies have strengthened against the US Dollar. The Yuan rose to its strongest level this year, as the People’s Bank of China set the reference rate at the highest level in more than three months.

Meanwhile, analysts are predicting that the Indian Rupee will fall beyond record lows in the coming months, as the Reserve Bank of India focuses on supporting the government’s spending measures and attempts to stifle a market sell-off that has driven the yield curve to its steepest levels in 11 years.

The International Monetary Fund has predicted that the recession will last longer in the UK than in any of the world’s other major economies.

The IMF has warned that the UK will be the only member of the G7 group of leading industrial countries that will continue to see its economy shrink in 2010. The IMF said the UK economy will shrink 3.8% this year and 0.2% in 2010. By contrast, IMF predictions see the G7 nations will see their economies decline 3.2% on average in 2009, before growing 0.2% next year.

Pound Sterling - UK Markets

Official figures due out later today are expected to show that the number of people in the UK who are unemployed has risen to more than two million for the first time since 1997. Analysts predict that the data for November to January will show that the number of people out of work rose by more than 150,000 during the period. The TUC had claimed earlier this week that there are now 10 jobseekers for every vacancy advertised in UK jobcentres.

The thirteenth consecutive monthly increase in claims was significantly larger than the market consensus estimate for a rise of 87,500 in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists last week. Other data released by the Office for National Statistics showed that the number of job vacancies slumped to its lowest level since comparable records began in 2001, while the number of redundancies soared to its highest level since that series started in 1995.

Proposals aimed at overhauling the rules governing UK banking and stopping a repeat of the financial crisis are to be unveiled by the City watchdog. Financial Services Authority chairman Lord Turner will put forward new rules on lending and seek to restrict the ability of banks to take excessive risks. The plans will aim to stop banks lending too much during boom times, which may include limits on home loans. Lord Turner will also recommend that banks publish more and clearer information in their accounts about the risks they are running. A proposal to form a new pan-European body will also be mooted, to set standards for other regulators to follow.

US Dollar - US Markets

Federal Reserve policy makes are set to debate today what to do about the deepening US recession. Officials will determine how to provide further stimulus to the economy, from purchasing more mortgage bonds to buying Treasury securities. They’ll also keep the benchmark interest rate as low as zero percent, according to all 71 forecasters in a Bloomberg News survey.

At least three of the top Fed officials want to buy Treasuries or target the supply of money, while Chairman Ben Bernanke has favoured reviving specific credit markets. The Federal Reserve aren’t alone in mulling this problem; central banks worldwide are grappling with how to set policy when rates are near zero; the Bank of England started buying government debt this month, and the Bank of Japan said today it would increase its purchases of sovereign bonds.

Elsewhere, data released late on Tuesday showed unexpected strength in the housing market, with a 22.2 percent surge in U.S. housing starts in February. These figures eased fears about the worst-case scenario of another deflationary depression.

Euro – European Markets

European stocks have opened firmer today, as renewed confidence and positive sentiment outweighs the dismal global economic backdrop hanging over the markets. The Euro its highest level in over six weeks against the Pound, with investors trying to position themselves following the UK jobs data, as well as minutes from the Bank of England’s last policy meeting.

Buoyed by improved investor confidence after surprisingly upbeat German data, the Euro has been holding close to a one-month high against the US Dollar.

Other Currencies - Highlights

Retail sales in Switzerland increased 1.2% in January after rising at an annual pace of 3.6% in the previous month. Ahead of the release, the Swiss Franc ticked down against the Euro and the US Dollar, but advanced against its other major counterparts.

The breakdown of the report showed that demands for electronic goods rose 9.8%, while sales of healthcare products increased 6.5%. However, discretionary spending on personal goods plunged another 12.1% after falling 20.0% in the previous month, and was followed by an 8.1% drop in cultural goods.

The Bank of England announced yesterday that it is to take unprecedented steps to ease the recession; £75 billion will be injected into the British economy over the next three months.

Pound Sterling - UK markets

The Bank will embark on quantitative easing next week, a measure that will see more money printed, after the monetary policy committee cut the bank rate for the sixth time since October. The rate is now 0.5% - a level previously unseen in the Bank’s 315-year history.

Mervyn King, the Bank’s governor, said it was unlikely that the bank rate could go any lower and policymakers are now focussing on creating money instead. Chancellor Alastair Darling has given the Bank permission to create £150bn – 10% of the annual output of the economy – by purchasing government gilts and commercial assets.

Gilt prices rose sharply following the announcement, but stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic suffered a heavy sell-off amid concerns that the health of the insurance sector had been jeopardised by the credit crunch.

Halifax, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, said house prices fell by 2.3% in February and were almost 18% lower than a year ago, while the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders said sales of new cars were down 20% on February last year.

Following this was news that the board of Lloyds Banking Group met last night to consider a government-backed deal to insure up to £250bn of its most troublesome assets. If the deal goes ahead, the bank’s management would have to cede majority control to the state.

All this meant that the Pound tumbled. The Dollar gained against the sterling and the Euro on the back of the interest rate cuts. The Pound slid to 1.1221 against the Euro and is now around 1.4220 against the Dollar.

US Dollar - US Markets

However, the US Dollar dropped more than a one percent against a host of currencies overnight, reversing these recent gains, as investors braced for data that is expected to show that the US jobs market took a severe knock in February.

Economists expect the US economy lost a massive 648,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate rising to a 25-year high. Speculation that the figure could reach 1 million has hit the Dollar hard.

Although recent bad economic news has tended to be positive for the Dollar as investors have flocked to the perceived safety of the U.S. currency, analysts said investors’ immediate reaction to talk of such a horrendous number was to sell.

The Euro gained 1 percent against the Dollar to 1.2695.

Euro – European Markets

The European Central Bank cut its interest rates yesterday by half a percentage point, down to 1.5% - the lowest level since single Euro rates were introduced in 1999. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said interest rates could fall further from their current level but he stressed that they were already very low.

The ECB also slashed its inflation forecasts from 1.8% to 1%. The new inflationary target is significantly lower than the ECB’s stability objective of 2% and gives them scope to lower rates further.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The Swiss franc was a major gainer, with the Euro tumbling to a four-month low against the currency, with analysts saying the Swiss unit has briefly resumed its safe-haven status amid intensifying concerns about a severe global economic downturn.

The Australian Dollar reached a two-day low against the Euro.

The US Dollar has weakened overnight following reports the US government may nationalise major US banks as a result of the financial crisis. Sterling has staged a minor rally following the publication of retail sales figures for January and EU leaders met over the weekend to discuss economic strategy ahead of the G20 summit in London in April.

Pound Sterling - UK markets

Sterling has strengthened overnight, climbing to 1.45 against the US Dollar and gaining 1.6% on the Yen amid news that the US government may nationalise major banks. The news fuelled a round of risk aversion but this failed to strengthen the traditional safe havens and Sterling gained on its major currency partners overnight.

PM Brown has announced a £14 billion credit injection into Northern Rock and the bank is to start lending again, expected to take on £5 billion worth of mortgages this year. This is a reversal of earlier government decisions and comes tempered with the warning that banks should end risky speculation and return to their more traditional role as ‘stewards’ of people’s money. Retail sales figures on Friday boosted the Pound as they rose by 0.7% for the month of January taking annual sales up by 3.6%. However this comes at a time when retail analyst Experian predicted 10% of high-street stores will be empty by the end of February and more solid trends may be visible in quarterly statistics. Nationwide housing prices are released in the UK today with new mortgage approvals out tomorrow.

US Dollar - US Markets

The Dollar has weakened for the third consecutive day on speculation that the US government may bail out major banks even further. The Dollar is down 0.74% on the Canadian Dollar and has also declined the Pound, Euro and other major currency partners.

Dollar weakness comes after Christopher Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee announced that nationalisation of some banks may be necessary. Wall Street and equity markets fell to multi-year lows and the Dollar declined against the Euro and Yen. The Philadelphia Fed survey on Friday showed manufacturing has slumped to a 19 year low and a survey of business economists has shown the US recession is the worst in three decades. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US economy and this is expected to decline by 2.3% this year. There is no data out in the US today.

Euro – European Markets

The Euro has also rallied against the US Dollar, currently sitting at 1.28 after attempting to break 1.30 overnight. The Euro has also gained on the Yen and is currently trading at 0.88 against the Pound.

Leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy met over the weekend to formulate a position ahead of the G20 meeting to take place in London in April. Tighter market regulation and an end to risky speculative investments are expected to top the agenda. European leaders also agreed the IMF’s emergency fund for debt stricken countries should be increased to more than $500 billion. ECB President Trichet is to give a speech today.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have appreciated for the fourth consecutive day against the Dollar on speculation that the US Government is to increase its stake in the major US Banks. The Yen also declined amid speculation over the deteriorating Japanese economy expectations that export demand will continue to slump. This weakness could eventually undermine the safe haven status of the Yen. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s February meeting are released today. The Canadian Dollar has gained against the US following weaker American equities and reports that Canadian core inflation fell by 0.4% in January. Canadian retail sales figures are due today.

The Euro has suffered its biggest weekly decline against the US Dollar in a month – and the seventh weekly loss out of eight – amid speculation that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will today signal that he may cut interest rates to spur growth. The 16-nation currency is currently hovering just over 1.26 against the US Dollar.

Pound Sterling - UK markets

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, the number of homes that were repossessed in the UK declined slightly in the fourth quarter. A total of 10,400 homes were taken into possession between October and the end of the year, down from 11,100 between July and September.

However, a report released by the Office for National Statistics showed a surprising lift in UK retail sales in January. The rise is being attributed to the numerous price cuts that UK retailers made during the previous month. Despite the closure of numerous stores, such as Zavvi and Woolworths, retail sales have climbed 0.7% after increasing 1.7% in December. Economists had predicted a 0.1% drop.

US Dollar - US Markets

The Dollar has declined over 1% against the Euro this morning as fears abate over European exposure to bad debts and the US stimulus packages revives appetite for risk. The Dollar is also down over 1% on the Australian and Kiwi Dollars and is down to 0.69 against the Pound.

Yesterday’s figures in the US revealed housing starts and new building permits dropped to record lows in January along with industrial production figures which contracted 1.8% for the month. This signals a weak start to 2009 after the US economy contracted 3.8% in the final quarter of 2008. President Obama released details of a $275 billion housing package which is an attempt to address the root of the financial crisis and prevent the rising number of foreclosures on American homes. An estimated 400,000 home owners lost their homes in the US last year. This comes in the same week as the $787 billion rescue package, yet market response remains uncertain as details and growth prospects are unclear. The Federal Reserve have also announced they expect unemployment to rise to over 8.5% and projected long-term interest rates at 2%. The FOMC minutes are released today along with the Philadelphia Fed and jobless claims figures.

Euro – European Markets

French consumer prices fell in January for the seventh month in a row, but by less than expected, as prices for energy slumped and those of manufactured products remained unchanged. The French CPI report dropped 0.4% on the month, cutting the yearly increase to 0.7%, French national statistics bureau Insee said.

However, other key gauges of euro zone services and manufacturing activity unexpectedly crashed to new lows in February, suggesting that economic contraction in the first quarter of this year may be even worse than the final months of 2008.

Data released by Markit today has shown that the Purchasing Managers Index for the dominant service sector slumped to an 11-year survey low of 38.9 in February, confounding expectations that we would see a rise from 42.2 to 42.4. The data also showed price pressures sinking to survey record lows and is sure to strengthen expectations that the ECB will be forced to cut interest rates when it meets again in March.

Factories in the euro zone fared little better, with the manufacturing PMI also coming in at a record low of 33.6, considerably below the 50.0 mark that divides growth from contraction and, indeed, the 34.4 level seen January. The fall in both sectors took the combined composite index down to a record low of 36.2 from January’s 38.3 and well below the 38.5 forecast. The suggestion is that the 1.5% contraction in the economy in the final quarter of 2008 may be even worse in January-March.

Other Currencies - Highlights

The South Korean Won nosedived to a three-month low against the US Dollar this morning, breaking the 1,500 mark for the first time since November 2008 and closing yesterday at 1,506 Won against the US Dollar. Analysts predict that the Won will stay on this downward slump for the time being at least.