The UK has been greeted on its return to work today with the news that mortgage approvals rose 4% in the month from January to February this year.  Good news most will say.  However, the question that remains is is the UK market beginning its recovery, or is this simply a blip in an otherwise continuing downward spiral?

A number of property indicators in 2009 have suggested some form of recovery is under way.  From my own network of contacts in the property industry, January and February were certainly upbeat months.  So who is buying?  It seems it is a combination of first time buyers and property investors keen to take advantage of what they see as value in the market. There is certainly an increased level of demand from first time buyers who, having previously not been able to get on the ladder and have saved in the meantime, and now in position to take advantage of lower prices.

Many property investors, who will abide by the “buy low, sell high” philosophy, see an opportunity to buy up stock previously out of their reach.  Due to the increased numbers of repossessions, the Below Market Value (BMV) industry has certainly exploded in the last 3 months, with investors looking to buy at anywhere between 20% and 30% below market value on second hand property, and as much as 60% below market value for unsold developer stock.  These factors, combined with a stabilising in mortgage rates and products has led to increased enquiries, sales, and therefore the improvement in nationwide data released by various bodies.

In addition to this, lower interest rates have meant homeowners, specifically on tracker mortgages, have in some cases more than halved their monthly outgoings.  The government can therefore argue that lowering rates has put more money back in some people’s pockets.  However, it has been well documented that rate cuts have not, in the main, been passed on, so the financial easing has not affected the whole homeowner market.

So where are we?  Well general economic data would suggest the bottom has not quite arrived.  Job cuts are still being made and mainstream lending does not appear to have improved much.  Coupled with the facts that repossessions are still rising and general transactions between homeowners are still low would suggest that there is a blip in the market.  However, supply and demand are still fundamental when looking at the property market.  As prices fall, demand generally increases, and there is no doubt that demand has increased in 2009.  One could take a further view that if property prices continue to fall, the demand will continue to increase from both increased levels of first time buyers and investors looking for even better deals.  Therefore, it is my opinion that the property market will find a natural recovery point in the not too distant future.

It would seem that as the sun comes out, the days are longer and the weather takes a turn for the better, good news seems to be emerging from one of the nations leading Building Societies, with figures showing house prices and mortgage lending rising in March, compared to the previous month.

Nationwide have reported that in February 2009, the average house price was around £147,746, but the March figure has just emerged at £150,946, which is just under a 1% increase, at 0.9%.

I think it’s fair to say this is quite an unexpected rise, but does this really indicate we are heading into calmer storms and leaving the hurricane recession behind us? According to Nationwide, it is very early days, as they described the change as a “surprise bounce” and warned against concluding the market had turned.

Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:

“Spring brought a surprise bounce to house prices in March. The price of a typical house increased for the first time since October 2007, rising by 0.9% during the month and reducing the annual rate of fall from -17.6% to -15.7%. This brings the price of a typical house to £150,946. The moderation in the annual rate of fall is somewhat distorted by conditions last year and so it would be unwise to draw strong conclusions from the significant slowdown in the annual rate of fall. Equally, while the rise in prices in March is welcome, it is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has been reached.

The Bank of England has already taken strong measures to ease the tensions in economic and financial markets by cutting rates and commencing quantitative easing. However it will take time for these to work through into the housing market before we can expect a sustained recovery in house prices.”

To add to the good news about house prices, Nationwide also revealed to the country that Mortgage Approvals were the highest since May 2008, with February seeing mortgage approvals rise to 37,900, nearly its highest level for a year.

The more houses that are sold and purchased, the more money is pumped back into the economy, so these two pieces of news are not only a great joy to hear, but also tiny bits of gold dust that we need to start collecting in the years ahead.

So, in a year of mass redundancies, economic doom and gloom and of course the lack of any money to spend on the nice things, we say thank you Nationwide and may you bring us more good news next month, the month after and the following months that come.

You see, we like good news, it just feels better.

As soon as I finish this blog, it will take its place in history. Admittedly, it won’t be up there with world wars, births of monarchs and world cup winning football teams, but it will indeed have its own place in history.

A funny subject for an investment related blog? Probably, but as an investor, history plays a massive part in the way we invest, but is it always an accurate version of what really happened. Yesterday will almost always define how we approach tomorrow.

Let’s roll back to a week last Wednesday. I tend to play a few arrows with a good mate down my local pub (this really is going somewhere, I promise). It was one of those nights where every dart I threw was a winner and for once I walked away the darts champion of the 7th of January 2009, for my local pub and our game anyway. All said and done, I won, that is history, it is there for both me and my friend to reminisce to the grandkids about if we achieve nothing else as life moves forward.

This is not a rant I promise, but as we prepare for another massive match tomorrow, we had a quick chat about times and venues, then nothing more than a passing comment was motioned into the conversation, he said I won 3 – 1, whereas I think I won 3 – 0. He is sure, I am sure, there was no cheering audience or passing local to back either of our opinions up. The fact I won is there, we both agree, but as to the score, we both have different opinions. So this one piece of history is covered in doubt, possibly controversy, and although history dictates that I won the game, the score is still up for debate, even though it happened only 6 days ago.

Moving back to the investment topic, as we all sit down and plan and prepare for our investments for the next few years, how will we look back at the history of our previous investments?

Some will say its been a terrible year with house prices crashing, but the houses they owned all had tenants and the rent covered the mortgage, so does the history of 2008 define a bad year because of the house price drop, or does it indicate a good year as all the houses had tenants and we are not out of pocket in the physical sense, only in the paper value of what the houses might be worth today. If the reverse was true and they had no tenants for 6 months but their house price rose by 5%, would this indicate a good year or bad year, with a big loss of physical money, but a rise on the value of their houses?

This is where history, although it does indeed happen, can be taken and interpreted in many different ways. England winning the football world cup in 1966 did indeed happen, but for some people it was the greatest game they ever saw, for others in the crowd that day it was an immense disappointment.

Even though history may indeed make 2008 look like a terrible year for investors, we must as investors and individuals look back and look at it from a balanced point of view. If we are still standing and investing, it couldn’t have been that bad, could it?

I am A Buy To Let Investor.

I know, I am sorry, I have contributed to the current crisis, made sure that many young people can no longer afford to live anywhere and also made money from banks and run down areas.

For this I can only apologise.

But, I may only have two houses in my small portfolio of UK property, but in today’s current investment orientated world, I would be labelled a Buy to Let Investor. This term should traditionally imply someone with 20 houses all over the UK and possibly the world, with a combined worth of many millions.

Isn’t that what an investor is?

Well, these days no. Whether you put some money into a small portfolio of houses or you take chances on the stocks and shares, you will be classed as an investor.

According to Wikipedia, an investor is:

“An investor is any party that makes an investment.

The term has taken on a specific meaning in finance to describe the particular types of people and companies that regularly purchase equity or debt securities for financial gain in exchange for funding an expanding company. Less frequently, the term is applied to parties who purchase real estate, currency, commodity derivatives, personal property, or other assets.”

The question has to be, where do you stop becoming someone who has saved a little bit of money in an ISA, which is an investment of sorts, to becoming an investor? I do not think I am an investor, more someone who has a couple of houses in the North, looking to make a long term capital gain on their worth, which in one sense is an investment, but on the other is just a more secure bet of putting surplus money into something that even with the doom and gloom in the media, will make some money, especially if you are taking a 5 or 10 year plan.

Investor is a word that gets applied to anybody these days, and if you were to ask most people labelled by this term, I would guess many, if not the majority, would probably not consider themselves to be an investor. The years of having to work in London, wear a suit and carry a funky leather briefcase and laptop to be classed as an investor are long gone, and now all you need is a laptop, cup of coffee and a UK Bank Account.

So what types of Investors are there?

Well, according to Wikipedia:

* Individual investors (including trusts on behalf of individuals, and umbrella companies formed for two or more to pool investment funds)
* Collectors of art, antiques, and other things of value
* Angel investors, either individually or in groups
* Venture capital funds, which serve as investment collectives on behalf of individuals, companies, pension plans, insurance reserves, or other funds.
* Investment banks
* Businesses that make investments, either directly or via a captive fund
* Investment trusts, including real estate investment trusts
* Mutual funds, hedge funds, and other funds, ownership of which may or may not be publicly traded (these funds typically pool money raised from their owner-subscribers to invest in securities)
* Sovereign wealth funds

The question I would raise is even if you own your own house, you are an investor. You are investing in the house being worth more than you paid for it and if you are on a repayment mortgage, you are looking to slowly chip away at your repayments to eventually own something that has to be considered an investment.

The walls and barriers have come down. Buy a couple of houses, you are an investor, buy some of the Discover And Invest Stamps, you are an investor, put some money into the Discover And Invest ambulance trading, you are an investor.

These days, we are all investors, for different reasons, purposes and methods yes, but deep down, everyone is an investor.